Benchmarks — vs. typical 2028 showcase arm

Gray band = typical class range (approx.) · marker = Prior · Future Games TrackMan (velo/spin; movement login-gated at pull)

FB Velo Max

92.0

FB Velo Sitting

88.8–90.8

FB Spin Max

2155

SL Velo Max

85.3

SL Spin Max

2099

Sat 88.8–90.8 touching 91.5 at LakePoint — at SIXTEEN AND FIVE MONTHS. The slider velo is the outlier column: 81.2–84.7 T85.3 is major-college slider velocity right now, just 6 mph off the heater. Low-ish spin suggests a power-sink lean; movement data pending PBR re-login.

Perfect Game + the age math

PG grade 9 · #279 national (9/2, up 181 spots from July) · 16 events · +29 mph since 2020 · 16y 5mo — a full year-plus younger than much of the class

Metric	Value	Note
FB '26 (PBR velos)	90.0 avg · 92.0 max	at 16y5m
CH '26 avg	85.5	firm, near-SL velo
60-yd / 10-yd (FG)	6.93 / 1.58	plus runner at 6'4"
PG last public gun	87 (6/13/25)	pre-jump — stale

PG's scout note (Underclass All-American Games): "tall and slender, very projectable physically… clean arm stroke and release, good mechanics." Their public data hasn't caught his 2026 — the last public gun reading (87) is five mph behind the current PBR logs, and the #460 → #279 jump says their internal looks are catching up fast. DK game logs now in — and they're honest: 20.1 IP, 9.64 ERA, 20 K / 20 BB, .379 against across 12 games. Read with context: like O'Byrne's, these are largely younger-vintage innings logged BEFORE the velo arrived (PG's public gun still says 87) — pre-jump data from a kid who just turned the corner. Current-year St. Augustine logs are the real verification ask.

Development — Feb '26 → Jul '26

CA High School Heat Sheet vs. Future Games looks

Look	Date	FB	Secondary
CA HS Heat Sheet	2/24/26	86–89	77 CB
Future Games (TrackMan)	7/22/26	88.8–90.8 T91.5	SL 81.2–84.7 T85.3
FG tournament (in-game)	7/22/26	88–92	SL 80–85 · CH 85–86

+3 on the sitting band in five months, and the whole secondary set firmed up — the slider went from a 77 mph winter breaker to an 80–85 power pitch, with the changeup thrown at 85–86 off the same arm speed. The three pitches now live within an 8-mph window — a power-pitcher's ladder, at an age when most of the class is a year older.

The Case

Why a movement-data-incomplete report still ranks him

Take Howard's age math and add three inches of velocity: Prior is 16 years, 5 months — younger than every arm on our shelf except Howard — and he's ALREADY sitting 89–91 with an 85 slider. On the standard +3/year development curve, this is a mid-90s arm by junior spring with premium athleticism (6.93 runner) and a 6'4" frame at 184 that hasn't filled a single sleeve. PG grading him a 9 while their own public velo data is five mph stale tells you the rise is happening faster than the boards can print. West Coast kid — San Diego Show plays a national schedule, so the exposure (and competition for him) is coming. The missing piece is movement/extension data (PBR re-login). The PG game logs (now pulled) are rough but pre-date the velo jump — the eval rides on the current arm, not the 14u innings.

Sources: Prep Baseball Report profile (verified 7/22/26; movement & rankings login-gated at pull) — Future Games TrackMan (7/22/26), FG tournament velos, CA HS Heat Sheet (2/24/26), 2026 Pitching Velos · Perfect Game profile (public view; session signed out) — PG grade 9, Underclass All-American Games report, +29 mph since 2020 · Ranks: PG #279 (9/2) vs #460 (July) · Class benchmark bands are staff approximations · Prepared by UVA Pitching · 9/10/26